The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data

Bryson, Steve; Kunimoto, Michelle; Kopparapu, Ravi K.; Coughlin, Jeffrey L.; Borucki, William J.; Koch, David; Aguirre, Victor Silva; Allen, Christopher; Barentsen, Geert; Batalha, Natalie M.; Berger, Travis; Boss, Alan; Buchhave, Lars A.; Burke, Christopher J.; Caldwell, Douglas A.; Campbell, Jennifer R.; Catanzarite, Joseph; Chandrasekaran, Hema; Chaplin, William J.; Christiansen, Jessie L.; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jørgen; Ciardi, David R.; Clarke, Bruce D.; Cochran, William D.; Dotson, Jessie L.; Doyle, Laurance R.; Duarte, Eduardo Seperuelo; Dunham, Edward W.; Dupree, Andrea K.; Endl, Michael; Fanson, James L.; Ford, Eric B.; Fujieh, Maura; Gautier, Thomas N., III; Geary, John C.; Gilliland, Ronald L.; Girouard, Forrest R.; Gould, Alan; Haas, Michael R.; Henze, Christopher E.; Holman, Matthew J.; Howard, Andrew W.; Howell, Steve B.; Huber, Daniel; Hunter, Roger C.; Jenkins, Jon M.; Kjeldsen, Hans; Kolodziejczak, Jeffery; Larson, Kipp; Latham, David W.; Li, Jie; Mathur, Savita; Meibom, Søren; Middour, Chris; Morris, Robert L.; Morton, Timothy D.; Mullally, Fergal; Mullally, Susan E.; Pletcher, David; Prsa, Andrej; Quinn, Samuel N.; Quintana, Elisa V.; Ragozzine, Darin; Ramirez, Solange V.; Sanderfer, Dwight T.; Sasselov, Dimitar; Seader, Shawn E.; Shabram, Megan; Shporer, Avi; Smith, Jeffrey C.; Steffen, Jason H.; Still, Martin; Torres, Guillermo; Troeltzsch, John; Twicken, Joseph D.; Uddin, Akm Kamal; Van Cleve, Jeffrey E.; Voss, Janice; Weiss, Lauren M.; Welsh, William F.; Wohler, Bill; Zamudio, Khadeejah A.
Bibliographical reference

The Astronomical Journal

Advertised on:
1
2021
Number of authors
82
IAC number of authors
1
Citations
116
Refereed citations
91
Description
We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that η⊕ for the conservative HZ is between ${0.37}_{-0.21}^{+0.48}$ (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and ${0.60}_{-0.36}^{+0.90}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between ${0.58}_{-0.33}^{+0.73}$ and ${0.88}_{-0.51}^{+1.28}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ∼6 pc away and there are ∼4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.
Related projects
Helio and Asteroseismology
Helio and Astero-Seismology and Exoplanets Search

The principal objectives of this project are: 1) to study the structure and dynamics of the solar interior, 2) to extend this study to other stars, 3) to search for extrasolar planets using photometric methods (primarily by transits of their host stars) and their characterization (using radial velocity information) and 4) the study of the planetary

Savita
Mathur